Districts use the 2026 lines where the state adopted new ones. Daily curves, past vote and the 2022 breakdown stay statewide.
Projected electorate vs. the turnout model
| State | File loaded | Votes through | Days out | Ballots |
|---|
Competitive House races
Races within 5 points either way on the Swingometer at the current generic ballot, with this tracker's early vote figures for the district where we track the state.
| District | Held by | Swingometer | 2024 pres. | Ballots | Electorate now | vs. same point 2024 | Projected final | vs. 2024 final | Net vs. state | vs. turnout model |
|---|
Florida statewide: —
Final electorate projection, by day
Projected R−D margin by day, with 2024 replayed the same way; the dashed segment runs to 2024's actual result. The diamond is an alternate read, based on how fast each party's infrequent voters are banking, that beat the projection here in 2022 and 2024.
Turnout so far
Turnout by party
Share of registrants who have voted through Oct 25, by method.
Turnout by race and party
Share of registrants who have voted, by race.
Pace by party
Mail ballots returned
By days before Election Day. The dashed line is the latest day counted (9 days out).
Early in-person votes
By days before Election Day.
Republican minus Democratic ballots
Net party advantage in ballots cast by day. Below zero means Democrats have cast more. The diamond is 2024's final advantage with Election Day votes included.
All early and mail ballots
2022, 2024 and 2026.
Pace by race
Ballots by race
Each group's share of ballots in 2026 vs. the same point in 2024.
Party mix of each group's 2026 ballots
Share of registrants who have voted, by primaries voted
Primaries from 2018 to 2024.
Share of registrants who have voted, by generals voted
Generals from 2018 to 2024.
Mail ballot return rate, by primaries voted
Returned mail ballots as a share of those sent.
Mail ballot return rate, by generals voted
Returned mail ballots as a share of those sent.
2022 and 2024 vote timing
Share who have voted in 2026, by how they voted in 2024
Projected electorate: Republicans —, Democrats —, NPA/other —. The turnout model alone gives —, — and —. Shares are within the selected race group.
Composition: in the bank, in the tank and projected
Each group's share of ballots already cast (in the bank), of the votes still expected from people who haven't voted (in the tank), and of the projected electorate.
Votes added above the turnout model, per 100 banked ballots
A habitual voter banking early adds little beyond what the model expected; an infrequent voter adds a lot.
Turnout model vs. expected electorate
Share of the 2026 electorate the turnout model predicts, and the share now expected from ballots banked plus votes still in the tank.
By party ·
By race ·
Share of the expected vote already banked
Ballots cast so far as a share of each group's expected 2026 vote.
Where each party's banked ballots come from
Banked voters by how they voted in 2022. Repeat early voters and Election Day voters switching to early don't change the final electorate; 2022 non-voters can.
Share of each party's banked ballots
Share of each group's expected 2026 vote already banked
Ballots cast per vote the turnout model expected from the same voters. 1.00× means they were certain to vote anyway. The group chart follows the district menu; groups with fewer than 30 banked voters in the sample are left out.
Ballots vs. turnout model, by group
Darker orange means more votes beyond what the model expected.
Ballots vs. turnout model, by congressional district
Ballots cast per expected vote among each district's early voters.
How this is built
- 2026 ballots are from each state's early vote file, latest as of Oct 26, counted through Oct 25. Each state runs through its own latest complete day. Rejected mail ballots don't count.
- —
- 2022 and 2024 are lined up by days before Election Day among today's registrants. Past early ballots with no return date are estimated, and a 2024 line drawn in short dashes is one where at least a quarter of that year's early vote had no date: they are spread across the early-voting period in the same pattern as that year's dated ballots of the same method and party. A note under the summary says when a state's comparison relies on this. A ballot recorded as cast at the polls but dated before Election Day counts as early in person.
- In the tank is the expected vote from people who haven't voted yet, discounted more for groups that have already banked more of their vote. Independents still out are discounted further, in proportion to how much of the expected vote is already in: with 1% banked, 99% of their expected vote is left as the turnout model has it. Both adjustments come from past cycles.
- Ballots from people not on the voter file (— here) count on the Pace tab only.